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Week 46, 2024

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Spotlight – Trump 2.0

What a Trump Presidency Means for AI

  • A four-year term might not sound long, but in terms of AI development, it's practically an eternity.
  • He's signaling a major rollback of oversight - fewer safety requirements and less paperwork for companies developing AI.

Step One: Dismantling Biden's Framework

  • Trump plans to scrap Biden's AI Executive Order on his first day.
  • The new AI safety organizations Biden created would likely be eliminated or significantly downsized.

Silicon Valley Is Divided

  • Some tech leaders are celebrating: "Finally, fewer restrictions on innovation."
  • Others are raising alarms: "This could lead to uncontrolled AI development."

Trump's Inner Circle Doesn't Agree Either

  • VP pick JD Vance opposes regulations, arguing they only benefit the tech giants.
  • Elon Musk, meanwhile, warns about AI risks and pushes for some oversight.

The Bottom Line: It's About China

  • The focus would be on winning the AI race rather than safety concerns.
  • Environmental regulations might also be scaled back, viewed as obstacles to competing with China.

Will Trump Scrap the CHIPS Act?

  • Trump's been taking shots at the CHIPS Act throughout his campaign - he's not a fan of giving subsidies to semiconductor companies setting up shop in the US.
  • But here's the thing: experts think he'll likely keep it around, despite all the campaign talk. After all, governing is different from campaigning.

Why It's Likely to Stay

  • The ball's already rolling - major players like TSMC and Samsung have poured billions into US factories, creating thousands of jobs. Pretty hard to pull the plug now.
  • Plus, semiconductors are ground zero in the tech race with China. Building up domestic chip production isn't just about business - it's a national security priority.

What Might Actually Happen

  • Instead of scrapping the whole thing, Trump might tweak some rules or use it as bargaining leverage.
  • This fits his broader playbook - keeping policies that help America compete with China, but reshaping them to match his America First message.

Will Trump Break Up Google?

  • Google employees' strong support for Harris has created tension, with many worried about what a Trump win could mean.
  • Trump's been taking shots at Google, claiming they only show negative news about him.
  • His VP pick JD Vance has been pushing the "Google is too powerful" line, calling for a breakup.

But Here's the Reality

  • A Google breakup probably isn't in the cards.
  • Trump actually sees Google as a tech weapon against China, saying "China fears Google" and warning that splitting it up could weaken America's global tech dominance.
  • Plus, Republicans typically aren't big on breaking up corporate giants.

Will Trump and Musk remain friends?

  • Their friendly relationship looks solid for now.
  • But we're talking about two strong personalities with massive egos.
  • If they disagree, expect fireworks - they're both known for public spats.
  • If Musk tries to flex too much influence in government or their business interests clash, things could sour fast.
  • Some are already calling Musk "the most powerful (unelected) man ever."
  • As the saying goes: there can't be two suns in the sky - and both these guys are used to being the sun.

Key Developments

Crypto's Growing Pull in American Politics

No matter how you slice it, this election was a huge win for crypto.”
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong

A Major Win for Crypto

  • Ohio's Senate race was a game-changer - crypto skeptic Sherrod Brown's defeat had crypto investors celebrating.
  • Crypto Super PACs went all in, pouring a whopping $40 million into supporting his opponent, Bernie Moreno.

Trump's Crypto Shift

  • Unlike his previous stance, Trump's been talking up crypto during his campaign.
  • This shift is fueling expectations of lighter regulation ahead.

Now We Know Why Musk Bought X

  • When Musk dropped $44 billion on Twitter, people thought he'd lost it - even called it a massive overpay.
  • He actually tried to renegotiate the price but couldn't get out of it.

The Real Strategy Emerges

  • During this election, X became Musk's megaphone for amplifying pro-Trump content.
  • The payoff? Tesla stock shot up after Trump's win, adding $20 billion to Musk's wealth in just one day.

The Long Game

  • What looked like a questionable purchase is now being seen in a new light.
  • Turns out Musk might have been playing 3D chess while everyone else was playing checkers.

Looking Back

  • That $44 billion price tag doesn't look so crazy now - it bought him significant political influence.
  • He's managed to turn what many saw as a business blunder into a powerful political tool and wealth multiplier.

Why Meta, OpenAI, and MS Are Creating Their Own AI Benchmarks

  • A significant shift is happening in the AI industry.
  • Until now, AI models like GPT and Claude were measured using public benchmarks like MMLU.

Why It's Time for Change

Company-Specific Needs

  • And they're too general to measure the specific capabilities companies care about.
  • Each company has different priorities for their AI:
  • Meta might focus on social interaction capabilities.
  • Microsoft might emphasize business applications.
  • OpenAI might care more about general problem-solving.
  • Custom benchmarks let companies measure what's actually important to their goals.

  • Chegg, a major tutoring and homework help platform, is taking a massive hit.
  • The numbers are brutal:
  • Lost over 500,000 subscribers since ChatGPT launched.
  • Stock has plunged 99% from its early 2021 peak.

Why Students Are Jumping Ship

  • It's simple math: why pay for Chegg when ChatGPT is free?
  • AI tools are getting surprisingly good at:
  • Breaking down complex problems.
  • Explaining solutions step-by-step.
  • Providing homework guidance.

The Bigger Picture

Coding AI Startup Is Taking Off

  • Anysphere, the company behind AI coding assistant 'Cursor', is seeing explosive growth.

The Numbers Are Staggering

  • Last October: $20 million annual revenue.
  • Now: $50 million annual revenue.
  • That's 2.5x growth in just a few months.

Serious Backing

  • OpenAI is a direct investor - that's a pretty big deal.
  • Top VCs like a16z are also on board.
  • Currently in talks for new funding at valuation exceeding $2 billion.
  • Shows the massive appetite for AI coding tools.

Legacy Tech Giants Feel the Squeeze as AI Reshuffles Budgets

Legacy Players Scramble

  • Which is why companies like Salesforce are rushing to add AI features.
  • Their pitch? "Hey, we've got AI too!"

The Reality Check

  • Obviously, deeply integrated legacy systems can't be replaced overnight.
  • But as AI adoption becoming the clear trend, legacy software companies are in a tough spot:
  • They need to show they're AI-ready and compete with AI-native solutions to protect existing customer base.

Vertical Farming Startups Are Falling Like Dominoes

  • Bowery Farming just called it quits, despite raising over $700 million from big names like Google.
  • It's a Pattern. Last year saw AeroFarms and AppHarvest go bankrupt.
  • These were supposed to be the future of farming.
  • Investors are getting cold feet about the whole sector.

Why They're Failing

  • The pitch sounded great: AI-controlled indoor farms, growing crops in layers near cities.
  • The reality? Sky-high operating costs: Massive electricity bills and expensive labor.
  • Can't compete with traditional farm prices.

The Hard Lesson

  • Disrupting traditional agriculture needs more than just fancy technology.

Other updates

Nvidia tops market cap rankings, surpassing Apple at $3.3T.

Anthropic's Claude AI heads to US defense agencies.

Amazon discusses Anthropic deal, linked to using Amazon chips.

Amazon launches 1-hour drone delivery in Phoenix.

Apple shares profit concerns for new ventures.

Apple develops lightweight smart glasses.

OpenAI hires Meta's AR lead for ChatGPT device project.

OpenAI buys chat.com domain.

Microsoft might rename Copilot to 'Windows Intelligence.'

TSMC cuts China's AI chip supply per US export ban.

Huawei struggles to poach TSMC talent despite 3x salary offers.

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